Run The Patient Through The Murder Tube

A little radiation never hurt anyone – until years later.

This study revisits the “how much cancer are we really causing with CT scans” idea.

Back in 2007, the thought was about 27,000 annual cancers could be attributable to ionizing radiation from CT scan use. This was a fairly earthshaking number at the time, particularly considering CT use had virtually exploded in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

This update brings in a few added tweaks to the old method – calculating, the authors claim, from more precise exposure data based on observed dosimetry, incorporation of the added radiation dose from multiphase studies, and, naturally, a steady, continued increase in the number of scans performed.

Unsurprisingly, with 1) more radiation, and 2) more scans, the numbers are worse– now, approximately 100,000 extra cancers:

There are wide error bars around all of these depending on various underlying assumptions, the most salient of which is the estimates all go back to observations from Japanese survivors of nuclear attack.

Naturally, the long-term risk for future cancer is counterbalanced by, presumably, the short-term risk of mortality or morbidity when advanced imaging is chosen as a diagnostic strategy. That said, there is no question CT overuse is rampant, for likely a multitude of factors. No shortage of effort is put into vocalizing concerns for said overuse, but it remains unclear whether current medical culture is manifesting change in response to these steering currents.